Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 1.349890 1.535418 1.733956 1.961853 2.215842 2.489822 2.807341
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 1.085830 1.333220 1.615699 1.960753 2.369420 2.836476 3.409076
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.920688 1.214188 1.570059 2.030118 2.605559 3.297696 4.188931
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.767905 1.087053 1.497539 2.058152 2.796861 3.729173 4.985749
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.676875 1.025571 1.499933 2.181999 3.125099 4.368820 6.115657
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.554528 0.902043 1.403067 2.162360 3.264485 4.782914 7.003987
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.466023 0.812776 1.341725 2.184780 3.466027 5.304942 8.097860
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.387161 0.724445 1.268819 2.180707 3.630029 5.793806 9.200172
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.339785 0.679163 1.256405 2.268504 3.943745 6.534840 10.746166
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.295595 0.631190 1.232474 2.334958 4.233040 7.270164 12.358658
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.253251 0.578224 1.191697 2.367581 4.471736 7.951549 13.955075
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.218740 0.533469 1.158648 2.409354 4.731361 8.693095 15.718493
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.175785 0.463057 1.068328 2.339873 4.800890 9.148973 17.098512
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.140258 0.399919 0.980755 2.262259 4.846952 9.572649 18.473120
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.118328 0.363199 0.941967 2.277067 5.071515 10.338923 20.523627
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.097696 0.323846 0.889619 2.255351 5.222755 10.989324 22.433654
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.086637 0.307350 0.887582 2.344148 5.611541 12.127198 25.345053
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.070109 0.269616 0.825576 2.286189 5.685235 12.666268 27.185213
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.058656 0.243540 0.787709 2.278967 5.868321 13.440818 29.548662
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.048383 0.217491 0.743890 2.249386 5.997538 14.119029 31.783673
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.042806 0.206002 0.738719 2.317917 6.361698 15.319261 35.162308
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.037433 0.193225 0.726934 2.367216 6.686991 16.467680 38.529156
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.032081 0.178275 0.704910 2.384768 6.937507 17.477316 41.689045